Study on the Feasibility Analysis and the Operational Processes of Using Prediction Markets to do Technology Foresight

Abstract

Abstract:

The rapid development of new technology made that science and technology as the primary productive role has become increasingly prominent. Either national competition or company competition is a technology competition and innovation competition. To make a strategic plan for predictable development of technology has become a regular work, and it is necessary to build a routine and institutionalized method and workflow. Prediction markets, emerging as a predictive tool in recent years, being widely used in
many areas, has been demonstrated the accuracy of their forecasts. This paper tried to study the using of prediction markets in the technology foresight. This paper summarized the advantages and disadvantages of the prior methods of technology foresight, analyzed the foresight mechanism of prediction markets, pointed
out that prediction markets could become a routine and institutionalized technology foresight tools, and tried to establish a workflow for prediction markets to do technology foresight.

Key words: Technology foresight, Prediction markets, Prediction methods

Li Guoqiu, Wang Xiaoyun. Study on the Feasibility Analysis and the Operational Processes of Using Prediction Markets to do Technology Foresight[J]. LIBRARY JOURNAL, 2014, 33(1): 8-19.

References

[ 1 ] Ben R Martin. Matching Social Needs and TechnologicalCapabilities: Research foresight and The implications forsocial sciences (Paper presented at the OECD workshopon social sciences and innovation) [D]. Tokyo: UnitedNations University, 2000.

[ 2 ] OECD技术预见网站[EB/OL]. http://www.oecd.org,2013.

[ 3 ] 杨耀武. 技术预见学概要[M]. 上海: 上海科学普及出版社, 2006:22-53.

[ 4 ] Wolfers J, Zitzewitz E. Prediction markets[J]. Journalof Economic Perspectives. 2004(18):107-126.

[ 5 ] ziralis G T, genas G V. Chapter 15: PredictionMarkets, an E-merging Web 2.0 Business Model:Towards the Competitive Intelligent Enterprise [OL].2008.

[ 6 ] Forsythe R, Lundholm R. Information aggregation in anexperimental market[J]. Econometrica, 1990.[ 7 ] Forsythe R, Nelson F, Neumann G R, WrightI. Anatomy of an Experimental Political StockMarket[J]. American Economic Review, 1992(5):1142-1161.

[ 8 ] Abramowica M. Deliberative information marketsfor small groups[M]// Hanhn R W, Tetlock PC. Information Markets: A New Way of MakingDecisions. AEI-Brookings Press,2006:101-125.

[ 9 ] Graefe A, Weinhardt C. Long-term forecastingwith prediction markets. A field experiment onapplicability and expert confidence[J]. Journal ofPrediction Markets, 2008(2):71-92.

[10] Berg J, Nelson F, Rietz T A. Prediction marketaccuracy in the long run[J]. International Journal ofForecasting ,2008(24):285-300.

[11] Paul Docherty, Steve Easton. Market Efficiencyand Continuous Information Arrival: Evidence fromprediction markets[J].Applied Economics, 2012(44):2465-2468.

[12] Sunstein C R. Group judgements: statistical means,deliberation, and information markets[J]. New YorkUniversity Law Review, 2005(80):962-1050.

[13] Christiansen J D. Prediction markets: practicalexperiments in small markets and behaviousobserved[J]. Journal of Prediction Markets,2007(1):15-45.

[14] Deschamps B, Gergaud O. Efficiency in bettingmarkets: evidence from English football[J]. TheJournal of Prediction Markets, 2007(1):60-73.

[15] Graefe A. Prediction markets—defining eventsand motivating participation[J]. Foresight-Theinternational Journal of Applied Forecasting,2008(Spring):30-32.

[16] Christian Slamka, Bernd Skiera, Martin Spann.Prediction Market Performance and MarketLiquidity: A Comparison of Automated MarketMakers[J].IEEE Transactions on EngineeringManagement, 2013(1):170-180.

[17] Debnath S, Pennock D M, Lawrence S, Giles C L.Information incorporation in online in-game sportsbetting markets[A]// Proceedings of the 4th AnnualACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, 2003:258-259.

[18] Robin Hanson. Logarithmic Market Scoring Rulesfor Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation.http://hanson.gmu.edu,2007.

[1]	Huang Liye. Construction and Empirical Research on Technology Foresight Based on Patent Analysis Model [J]. Libraly Journal, 2017, 36(5): 72-77.
[2]	Li Guoqiu, Long Yi. The Strengths of the Prediction Markets being Applied to the Technology Foresight: 20 Dimensions Empirical Studies for 13 Commonly Used Methods of Technology Foresight [J]. LIBRARY JOURNAL, 2014, 33(8): 11-28.